Preview and prediction for Manchester United vs. Manchester City.
We offer our Manchester United vs. Manchester City prediction and preview as we anticipate the exciting derby match on Sunday. Can the Red Devils catch up to their opponents by three points?
The Quick Hits between Manchester United and Manchester City
The Opta supercomputer has Manchester City as the favorites for Sunday’s derby, giving the champions a 50.2% chance of winning despite Manchester United’s recent upswing.
The only manager to have more Premier League victories over Manchester United than Pep Guardiola (seven) is Arsène Wenger (12). Guardiola is the only manager to have won at least 50% of his games against the Red Devils out of all those who have faced them ten times in the competition (7/14).
The past two times he has played against City, Bruno Fernandes has scored. Paul Scholes was the last Manchester United player to score in three straight Manchester derbies between 2003 and 2004.
Preview of the Match
Matchday 10 concludes with one of the Premier League season’s most anticipated games when Manchester United hosts rivals Manchester City at Old Trafford. Only a few weeks ago, the Red Devils were on the verge of a serious crisis. However, they have somewhat eased tensions with three straight, if implausible, victories, and they are now only six points behind City in the league standings going into Sunday’s match.
After battling their way to 2-1 Premier League victories over Sheffield United and Brentford before the international break, Erik ten Hag’s team finally opened their UEFA Champions League campaign with a thrilling 1-0 victory over Copenhagen on Tuesday.
Although it wasn’t easy, Ten Hag was happy to see two of his most closely watched players silence their skeptics. Harry Maguire headed Christian Eriksen’s cross into the goal, and André Onana stopped Jordan Larsson of Copenhagen—son of former United striker Henrik Larsson—from taking a stoppage-time penalty.
There have now been two thrilling finishes at Old Trafford. Following his 87th-minute substitution in United’s most recent home league game against Brentford, where he scored a game-winning brace in stoppage time, Scotland international Scott McTominay opened the score last Saturday against Sheffield United. In his last two Premier League games, he has scored three goals more than in his previous 70 (two), and those goals have given the Red Devils five points.
In United’s last two games, McTominay has partnered with Sofyan Amrabat. However, Casemiro will challenge the duo before Sunday’s matchup, as the Brazilian has recovered from the injury that kept him out at Bramall Lane.
Bruno Fernandes has the potential to become a legend at United going forward after scoring in the final two Manchester derbies of 2022–2023, including a penalty in the team’s June loss in the FA Cup final at Wembley Stadium. Paul Scholes was the last United player to score in three straight games against City in all competitions back in 2003–04.
In January, Marcus Rashford scored along with Fernandes when United defeated City in league play. Though Rashford has only scored one Premier League goal (in a loss) this season, he has yet to find his form.
Man City, on the other hand, is trying to get back on track after experiencing their own wobble before the international break, when they lost badly to Wolves and Arsenal in back-to-back Premier League games due to Rodri’s suspension.
Last week, City set a new record for the most home victories by a Premier League team with their 21st consecutive victory over Brighton, thanks to goals from deadly duo Julián Álvarez and Erling Haaland. Brighton was defeated 2-1.
Midway through City’s Champions League comeback, Haaland took center stage once more. With a brace, he snapped his career’s longest goal drought (543 minutes) as the holders defeated Young Boys 3-1.
In his home country of Switzerland, Manuel Akanji also found the net, but he is suspended for Sunday’s derby after picking up two yellow cards against Brighton.
On Young Boys’ artificial field, City avoided any injuries in spite of Pep Guardiola’s worries.
After getting some rest, Kyle Walker is expected to start for the champions on Sunday in place of Akanji. John Stones, Rúben Dias, and Josko Gvardiol are also expected to start for the team.
Bernardo Silva and Phil Foden – who scored his first senior hat-trick when City thrashed United 6-3 at the Etihad Stadium last October – should also return after being benched on Wednesday.
The hosts will be without long-term absentees Lisandro Martínez, Luke Shaw, Aaron Wan-Bissaka and Tyrell Malacia; City academy player Jadon Sancho remains exiled by Ten Hag.
Guardiola boasts a strong record in this fixture, winning seven of his 14 Premier League games against United.
Arsène Wenger is the only coach to record more victories against the Red Devils in the competition (12), while Guardiola is the only boss to face them 10 or more times and win at least half of those matches.
City vs. United of Manchester Leader-to-Leader
In their most recent match, which took place in the FA Cup final in June, City advanced to the finals with a 2-1 victory thanks to two goals from İlkay Gündoğan.
Gündoğan’s first goal in the FA Cup final history was a beautiful volley that beat David de Gea in just 12 seconds.
When the teams played each other in the Premier League last January at Old Trafford, Jack Grealish gave City the early advantage.
Rashford appeared to be offside when he approached the ball and then let it run, but Fernandes’ controversial equalizer helped United rally for a 2-1 victory.
After winning three straight home league games against their neighbors between 2008–09 and 2010–11, United could now win back-to-back games against them in the league for the first time since Alex Ferguson’s departure.
On the other hand, City has a strong record at Old Trafford, having won more Premier League games there than any other visiting team (eight). In their previous 12 visits, they have won seven of those eight games.
From “noisy neighbors” to the dominant team in this rivalry, City has actually won 13 of their 24 Premier League matches against United since the 2011–12 season began (three draws, eight losses).
Over the course of 62 meetings between 1970 and 2011, they had previously defeated the Red Devils 13 times in the league.
Latest Form
Despite criticism for their performances, United has had a bit of a turnaround in recent weeks.
After losing four of their previous six Premier League games (two wins), Ten Hag’s team has won its last two.
With the exception of Burnley, all five of their league victories in 2023–24—against Wolves, Nottingham Forest, Burnley, Brentford, and Sheffield United—have come by a single goal, with four of those coming from goals scored in the final 15 minutes.
Prior to the most recent international break, the champions lost their previous two away Premier League games to Wolves and Arsenal. They now trail Tottenham at the top of the table as a result.
The last time they lost three straight away league games was in 2020, just before the COVID-19 shutdown. That run of games began with a 2-0 loss at Old Trafford and continued with losses at Southampton and Chelsea.
Rankings of Opta Power
Approximately 13,000 domestic football teams are given an ability score on a scale of zero to 100, with zero being the lowest-ranked team in the world and 100 being the best team in the world, by the Opta Power Rankings, a global team ranking system.
Here are both teams’ Opta Power Rankings before kickoff.
Manchester United vs Manchester City Prediction
In Sunday’s main match, the Opta supercomputer predicts the champions to win even though City has recently had a rough road trip.
In the 10,000 match simulations that were run prior to kickoff, City won 50.8% of the times.
United has a 22.5% chance of winning, while a draw is predicted to occur 26.7% of the time.
According to the supercomputer’s season projections, City is still the clear favorite to win the top division for a record-breaking fourth time in a row.
They come out on top in 75.4% of our simulations; the most likely teams to unseat them are Liverpool (11.7%) and Arsenal (10%).
With only a 4.2% chance of finishing in the top four, United is viewed as an outsider for Champions League qualification.
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