Caleb Williams, Drake Maye go Nos. 1 and 2: The Chicago Bears and New England Patriots opt to reset with new signal-callers.
• Offensive tackles fly off the board: Three tackles go in the top 10, including Penn State’s Olu Fashanu to the Commanders at No. 4.
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The Bears can reset their quarterback contract window here, and they should do so. Williams has recorded elite offensive grades in each of his three seasons of college football. This season is his lowest (90.3) due to the highest turnover-worthy play rate of his career (3.5%). He is capable of magical high-end plays, but there is no doubt he has to play more on schedule and in structure, on top of improving his ball security, to be able to showcase those out-of-structure plays in the NFL.
The Patriots are completely lost on offense, with no identity and no quarterback to build around. Maye has established himself as one of the top gunslingers in college football over the past two years. He made 38 big-time throws for an 8.7% big-time throw rate last season and has 32 such throws this year at a 7.5% clip. In both seasons, he recorded a sub-2.0% turnover-worthy play rate. Maye brings pro-level ability as a passer in all situations.
Wide receiver isn’t the biggest need for the Cardinals, but Harrison is the best player on the board in this scenario. You could make that case for him at the very top of the draft, too. There simply isn’t much you can point to for MHJ that isn’t already at an NFL-caliber level — his size, speed, smoothness, route running, reliable hands and football IQ are all ready for the pros. His evaluation is simple: Draft him, and he’ll be your WR1
.The Commanders could certainly entertain a quarterback with a top-10 pick, but with Williams and Maye off the board, they grab an ace in the trenches instead. Fashanu has rare movement skills in pass protection for a 6-foot-6, 320-pounder. He has never recorded a single-season pass-blocking grade below 84.0, posting an 88.4 mark in that category this season to pair with a career-best 70.5 run-blocking grade
The Bears have done a nice job accumulating talent in the offensive trenches, and they need to do the same on defense. They currently have the lowest team pass-rushing grade and are tied for the fewest sacks.
Latu has been the most productive edge rusher in the FBS over the past two seasons. He has the highest pass-rush grade (93.9), the second-most pressures (128) and the fourth-best pass-rush win rate (21.6%). His consistent production puts him at the top of the class
The Giants could also take a peek at the 2024 quarterback class here, but instead of taking QB3, which feels like a reach, I have them grabbing their next WR1.
Nabers has been one of the most productive pass-catchers in college football this season. The 6-foot, 200-pound receiver boasts a 93.2 receiving grade and more than 1,500 receiving yards. For more of a traits-based data point, he is in the 74th percentile of separation created, showing how often he can manufacture space for the quarterback to throw as one of the best route runners in the class.
It looks like we won’t see Aaron Rodgers this season after all. This upcoming offseason is all about the Jets building up their playoff chances with him in 2024.
Sometimes when an offensive tackle is 6-foot-8 and 320 pounds, as Alt is, you’ll see all sorts of balance or weight distribution issues, not to mention a lack of leverage in the trenches. But that’s not the case with Alt. His footwork is fluid, and his balance allows him to generate power from his lower body through his hands in a smooth fashion. He has been a three-year starter for the Fighting Irish and is a pro-ready left tackle
This should be an offensive trenches pick for the Titans. And luckily for them, there are plenty of potential matches in the top 10.
Latham is a massive offensive tackle prospect at 360 pounds, but he looks like a dancing bear with how well he can move at that weight. His sheer size provides a plus in the running game and when displacing defensive linemen via combo blocks or single blocks. He has played as both a right guard and a right tackle during his college career.
The Saints are still just one game back from the NFC South lead and hosting a playoff game, but they are far too inconsistent (and far too frustrating) to feel confident about them beyond this season. They need a complete and total reset, and that means picking a quarterback.
Daniels is the biggest riser in the draft class to this point. An afterthought for many going into the year, Daniels had a Heisman-worthy season at LSU. He recorded elite season grades as a passer and a runner to garner the top overall quarterback grade in the FBS (94.7). He has drastically improved both how he takes care of the football (see 2022) and how he sees the field and executes big-time plays (see 2023).
An edge rusher would be a good pick here for the Buccaneers, but Bowers is a top-five talent in the class, and the opportunity to draft him at this point is too good to pass up. He has recorded elite overall offensive grades in each of the past three seasons as the top tight end in college football. He immediately improves both the run and pass games for Tampa’s offense.
An edge rusher would be a good pick here for the Buccaneers, but Bowers is a top-five talent in the class, and the opportunity to draft him at this point is too good to pass up. He has recorded elite overall offensive grades in each of the past three seasons as the top tight end in college football. He immediately improves both the run and pass games for Tampa’s offense.
A defensive tackle doesn’t exactly move the needle for a team that was supposed to be in a competing window and is disappointing in basically every way, but it would be a welcomed pick for what the Chargers’ defense needs. Newton has the total talent package to be a three-down defensive lineman who can affect the run game and a pass-rusher with an explosive first step and violent, fast hands.
Jonah Williams is in the final year of his deal and might not be back next season — a hole that could be patched with one of the best right tackles in the FBS last season, Taliese Fuaga.
Fuaga is a people mover. He established himself as one of the best run blockers in America while working on the right side for the Beavers this season. He has earned a 90.7 run-blocking grade while recording a positive grade on 17.5% of his run-blocking snaps. His footwork doesn’t cover as much ground as for some of the other top tackles in pass protection, but Fuaga is an NFL starter at tackle or guard.
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