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The Green Bay Packers now face more challenges to their playoffs hopes after the weekend’s games; they are now ranked No. 11 in the NFC and out of the final playoff place, which is the seventh spot. However, this does not imply that hope is lost or even waning.
This is an overview of the Packers’ post-season prospects, updated to take into account Seattle’s victory against Philadelphia on Monday.
Can the NFC North be won by the Packers?
No, after this weekend, that ship has sailed.
What is the likelihood that the Packers will even make it to the playoffs?
The NYT simulator estimates the Packers’ chances of making the playoffs at about 22%. Additionally, the Packers will still have a 94% chance of making the playoffs if they win their remaining three games against Minnesota, Carolina, and Chicago.
What needs to occur in order for the Packers to receive a wild card?
Although they still have a solid chance if they win, the Packers are now facing the following new problems:
They are now one game behind the New Orleans Saints, Los Angeles Rams, and Seattle Seahawks. In order to have a chance to finish ahead of those three teams and secure a postseason berth, the Packers must lose to all three of those teams in the tiebreaker. It is imperative that the Seahawks lose to either Pittsburgh or Arizona; a defeat to Tennessee the following week will not suffice.
The Packers can defeat Minnesota in their home game, but in order to finish ahead of the Vikings, they must also lose one of the Vikings’ last two games against Detroit.
The Atlanta Falcons, who own the tiebreaker against Green Bay, and the Packers are still deadlocked. The Packers might be able to avoid Atlanta in a three-way tiebreaker (as they did with the Saints), but they wouldn’t mind if the Falcons suffered one more setback.
We’re aware that you’re eager to jump into the comments section and cite Jim Mora’s disbelieving “Playoffs?!” statement while criticizing the Packers for not playing like a postseason squad. However, they are still ahead of two of their final three opponents in terms of record, and the third hasn’t been playing well lately.
Wisconsin’s Green Bay, December 17: December 17, 2023, in Green Bay, Wisconsin. Head coach Matt LaFleur of the Green Bay Packers reacts during the fourth quarter versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Lambeau Field. (Image via Getty Images / Patrick McDermott)
Assuming the Packers win all of their remaining games. Why wouldn’t they make it to the playoffs?
Even at 9-8, there would be a good possibility for Green Bay to qualify for the postseason. But if two of the subsequent scenarios materialize, it would still be out.
The Vikings end the season 9–8 after sweeping the Lions. With a superior conference record, that would give the Vikings a tiebreaker advantage against the Packers. This is especially important for three-way tiebreakers, which determine the victor by first identifying the best team in each division. Put another way, in the event if the Vikings, Saints, and Packers were all tied for the final playoff slot, the Vikings would advance to the divisional tiebreaker and be matched against the Saints, leaving the Packers out of the equation. In any case, the Vikings won the matchup because they defeated the Saints head-to-head.
The Seahawks either win their remaining games or record 2-1 with the Titans being their lone defeat. Seattle would finish 9-8 in the latter case, share the same conference record as Green Bay, and have a better record against opponents they face frequently. Seattle will have a superior record at the end if the first scenario occurs. One thing to keep in mind: If there is a tie between the Packers, Rams, and Seahawks, Green Bay would win because the Rams have the tiebreaker over the Seahawks, which puts the Rams and Packers in a one-on-one match that the Packers would win head-to-head.
The remaining games are won by the Rams. The only way Los Angeles could beat the Packers in the end would be to do that. In the head-to-head tiebreaker, Green Bay is ahead.
The Falcons secure their last three games but are not victorious in the South. There isn’t a head-to-head tiebreaker because Green Bay and the Falcons currently share the identical record. Though doing so would force Green Bay to play the other two South teams, Atlanta could also win the NFC South, eliminating the need for a matchup with the Packers. If only Green Bay could get Atlanta to lose another game.
The losing team—Saints or Bucs—retains their postseason spot. Now that the Bucs have a head-to-head tiebreaker, Tampa Bay needs to lose twice more to finish behind the Packers; however, the Bucs are currently leading the NFC South after a tiebreaker against the Saints. This puts Green Bay and New Orleans in a fight for a wild card. The Packers have a head-to-head tiebreaker here even though they are trailing the Saints by a game. Thus, if Tampa Bay maintains the South, New Orleans is probably going to lose, which gives Green Bay the upper hand once more. To cut a long tale short, it would be disastrous if New Orleans won the South because that would mean there would be two teams fighting for a postseason slot with the Packers and a head-to-head tiebreaker against Green Bay.
The good news is that these teams that are playing Green Bay haven’t shown they can win any more games. Unfortunately, neither has Green Bay.
In the Green Bay Packers’ game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday, December 17, 2023, at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin, wide receiver Jayden Reed (11) scores a touchdown reception. The game was won 34–20 by Tampa Bay.
What will the Packers be rooting for in the upcoming week?
First, on Monday night, Packers supporters will want Philadelphia to defeat Seattle.
The Saints and Rams play each other next week (Week 16), hence one of those teams will lose. Though it’s marginally more likely that the Rams will lose, the New York Times simulator doesn’t predict a significant difference in Green Bay’s chances of qualifying for the postseason in either scenario, so it’s probably not something to worry about.
Otherwise, the Packers are supporting:
Why are you reading this if the Packers don’t win against the Panthers?
Falcons defeat vs the Colts
The Vikings will lose to the Lions.
The Jaguars will triumph over the Bucs.
Seahawks to lose to the Titans
While not necessary for everything to work out for Green Bay, each of those results would be beneficial. While a three-way tie with the Rams would benefit the Packers, the Titans’ victory against Seattle doesn’t significantly help Green Bay.
