#476 Denver Broncos vs. #475 New England Patriots
ESPN: Broncos head coach faces another big challenge for missing out on QB Russell Wilson.
On Sunday, the Denver Broncos will host the New England Patriots at Empower Field at Mile High. The game starts at 8:15 p.m. ET.
Denver (7-7 SU, 5-8-1 ATS, and 6-8 O/U) fell 42-17 to Detroit last week, while New England (3-11 SU, 4-10 ATS, and 5-9 O/U) lost 27-17 at Kansas City.
The game total is 34.5 points, with the Broncos being 6.5-point spread favorites.
Patriots: RB Rhamondre Stevenson, TE Hunter Henry, LB Anfernee Jennings, WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, CB Jonathan Jones, LB Ja’Whaun Bentley, DT Christian Barmore, LB Jahlani Tavai, OT Trent Brown, and OT Conor McDermott are all questionable.
Broncos: LB OT Alex Palczewski, TE Greg Dulcich, and Nik Bonnito are dubious.
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Every week, New England’s run defense is impressive.
In terms of total yards (285.3), New England ranks 28th, averaging 13.3 points (32nd), with 186.9 passing yards (26th) and 98.4 running yards (25th). It converts 31.8% of third downs (ranked 29th) and results in touchdowns on 56.6% of red zone possessions (ranked 13th).
The Patriots give up 308.3 total yards (8th) and 21.6 points (16th) per game, with 223.4 passing yards (16th) and 84.9 rushing yards (2nd) given up. This season, they have nine interceptions and 29 sacks. On 37.1 percent of third-down attempts (12th), New England’s opponents find the end zone, and on 47.6 percent of red zone excursions (6th), they also convert.
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Further
Report Ad Denver’s defense of the third down is sound
Denver averages 299.8 total yards (25th), with 187.1 passing yards (25th) and 112.7 rushing yards (14th), and scores 21.7 points per game (16th). It makes touchdowns on 50.0% of its trips to the red zone (ranked 22nd) and converts 37.0 percent of its third-down efforts (20th).
The defense of the Broncos allows 25.1 points (30th) and 382.4 total yards (31st) per game, with 146.9 rushing yards (32nd) and 235.5 passing yards (23rd) given up. Eleven interceptions and thirty-six sacks. Denver’s opponents find the end zone on 57.6% of their red zone visits (21st) and convert 33.3 percent of their third downs (2nd).
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Rating: I think the Broncos will win on Sunday, but I’m not sure they’ll win by more than a touchdown.
This Sunday, New England will play with dignity, containing the Broncos’ attack in the red zone—a place where they give but never give up. Russell Wilson, the quarterback for Denver, has not been as prolific as he once was; in eight of his previous 14 games, he has passed for 200 yards or less. In a game where the home team has to win, I think he will lead his team to victory, but he will be a manager of the game rather than a participant.
Denver may also have trouble stopping the run, even if Rhamondre Stevenson is not expected to participate. This season, the Broncos have allowed the highest amount of rushing yards and the eighth-highest amount of receiving yards to running backs. The previous two games, Ezekiel Elliott has assumed 33 carries and 14 targets, making him the center of attention for the Pats’ attack. Moving the chains, eating up game time, and keeping the final score within seven points are all things he’ll help NE do.
Forecast: +6.5 for the Patriots
