ESPN: McCarthy made a promise to destroy Alabama in week 17.

Heavy Sports’ AI-powered projections are more confident than the Vegas consensus that the Michigan football team will beat Alabama in next week’s Rose Bowl, where a trip to the College Football Playoff championship game is on the line.

Heavy’s projections, powered by Quarter 4, give the top-ranked Wolverines a 60 percent chance to beat the fourth-ranked Crimson Tide. And while the Heavy projections forecast a nail-biter, Heavy’s projected spread — Michigan by 3.5 points — is more bullish on the Wolverines than online sportsbooks.

Here’s where Heavy’s projections differ from the Vegas consensus:

Heavy’s Projections Like Michigan More Than Sportsbooks Do
Heavy’s projections and the consensus among sportsbooks generally agree: They expect the Michigan-Alabama game to be close. Both Heavy’s projected spread — what the model “thinks” the point spread should be — and every major sportsbook in our database have the Rose Bowl as a one-possession game. The data points are also fully aligned in having Michigan as the favorite.

At the margins, though, the Heavy model stands out quite a bit in contrast to the sportsbook spreads. As of late Tuesday night, six out of seven sportsbook lines in our database had the spread at Michigan by 1.5 points. One other sportsbook had the spread at Michigan by 2. (The database has spreads from BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel, ESPNBET, SugarHouse, PointsBet, and Bet365.)

The Heavy model also expects a slightly higher-scoring game than the sportsbook consensus. The Heavy projected points total — the combined scoring output from both teams — was 46.5. That’s a point and a half higher than the totals from SugarHouse, PointsBet, and Bet365, and two full points higher than the totals from BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel, and ESPNBET.

Outlet Spread Total
Heavy* Michigan -3.5 46.5
BetMGM Michigan -1.5 44.5
DraftKings Michigan -1.5 44.5
FanDuel Michigan -1.5 44.5
ESPNBET Michigan -2 44.5
SugarHouse Michigan -1.5 45
PointsBet Michigan -1.5 45
Bet365 Michigan -1.5 45
* The Heavy data point is a projected spread powered by Quarter 4. The other outlets in the table are all sportsbooks.

Michigan Football Has Blown Out Almost Everyone It’s Played This Season
Michigan (13-0) outscored its opponents this season by a combined 354 points — good for an average margin of victory of 27.2. Only three of the Wolverines games — the final three games of the regular season, against Penn State, Maryland, and Ohio State — were decided by single digits. Michigan’s 30-24 win over Ohio State on November 25 was the Wolverines’ closest game of the season.

Michigan football ended the stretch of relatively close games by trouncing Iowa 26-0 December 3 in the Big Ten Championship Game.

By contrast, Alabama (12-1) outscored its opponents by a collective total of 217. That’s an average margin of 16.7. The Crimson Tide lost 34-24 at home to Texas on September 9. Four of the Crimson Tide’s wins came by six points or fewer, including a much-closer-than-expected 27-24 squeaker over arch-rival Auburn on November 25.

Side-by-Side: Heavy Sports Projections vs. ESPN
Heavy’s forecast isn’t *that* far off from ESPN Analytics’ Matchup Predictor. The ESPN predictor gives Michigan a 55.6 percent chance to win. As is the case with other metrics, though, the Heavy model is more optimistic about Michigan’s chances, giving the Wolverines a 60 percent chance.

Model Michigan Probability Alabama Probability
Heavy 60% 40%
ESPN 55.6% 44.4%
In the other national semifinal — No. 2 Washington vs. No. 3 Texas in the Sugar Bowl — the two models diverge by a much wider margin. Both models have Texas favored to win. But the Heavy model gives the Longhorns a relatively modest 56 percent chance to win. The ESPN model, on the other hand, gives Texas a 69.2 percent chance.

Heavy’s projected spread — Texas by 2 — also diverges from the sportsbook consensus, which shows each book in our database having Texas as a 4-point or 4.5-point favorite.

Ben Doody is Heavy’s Managing Editor. Prior to joining Heavy in 2014, he was a sports reporter and editor at The Trentonian in Trenton, New Jersey; a breaking news editor at the Hearst Connecticut Media Group; and Connecticut Managing Editor for Digital First Media. More about Ben Doody