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At Raymond James Stadium on Sunday, the New Orleans Saints and Tampa Bay Buccaneers will compete for bragging rights in the NFC South. The game is set to begin at 1:00 p.m. ET.
There is a 42-point total for the contest, with the Bucs as 2.5-point spread favorites.
The Los Angeles Rams defeated New Orleans (7-8 SU, 4-10-1 ATS, and 5-10 O/U) 30–22 last week, ending a two-game winning streak.
Last week, Tampa Bay (8-7 SU, 10-5 ATS, and 6-9 O/U) defeated Jacksonville 30–12, marking their fourth straight win.
On October 1, the Bucs defeated the Saints 26–9. With three touchdown passes from quarterback Baker Mayfield, TB outgained NO 353–197. Despite only being 5-for-14 on third down, the Saints managed to rush for 70 yards on 19 carries.
Saints: S C Erik McCoy, OT Ryan Ramczyk, DE Isaiah Foskey, RB Kendre Miller, WR Chris Olave, DE Cameron Jordan, Jordan Howden, and CB Lonnie Johnson Jr. are all doubtful.
Buccaneers: LB Shaquil Barrett, TE Ko Kieft, and CB Carlton Davis III are all suspects.
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Last week, New Orleans only mustered 35 running yards on 16 carries (2.2 YPC), as the Saints were outgained 458-339. Through the first three quarters, the Rams limited the Saints to seven points (a combined 5-for-14 on third and fourth down).
In terms of total yards averaged (14th), New Orleans ranks 13th with 22.1 points per game and 14th with 336.1 passing yards (12th) and 22nd with 98.7 rushing yards (22nd). It converts 38.6% of third-down attempts (16th) and on 52.9 percent of its red zone visits (19th), it scores touchdowns.
The Saints surrender 19.8 points (9th) and 321.6 total yards (14th), including 194.7 passing yards (7th) and 126.9 rushing yards (25th). They have 31 sacks and 14 interceptions this season. New Orleans’ opponents convert 34.7 percent of their third downs (4th) and find the end zone on 52.2 percent of their red zone trips (10th).
The Bucs earned an impactful win over the Jags last weekend, as QB Baker Mayfield completed 26 of his 35 passing attempts for 283 yards and two touchdowns. Tampa Bay was 10-for-19 on third down, dominating the time of possession by over 13 minutes. It was also won the turnover battle 4-0.
Tampa Bay averages 21.7 points (17th) and 316.3 total yards (23rd), including 227.0 passing yards (17th) and 89.3 rushing yards (30th). It converts 42.4 percent of its third-down attempts (8th) and scores touchdowns on 48.8 percent of its visits to the red zone (25th).
The Bucs can clinch the NFC South for the third straight season with a win on Sunday, as they hold a one-game lead over Atlanta and New Orleans. The Saints aren’t out of the playoff discussion, as a victory would keep them in the wild card race. Will Tampa Bay, tied for the best ATS record in the NFL, cover against New Orleans, which sports the worst ATS record in the league?
The Buccaneers have been rolling, as Mayfield’s resurgence has been significant given the team’s struggling ground game (3.4 yards per carry). On the heels of great performances against Green Bay and Jacksonville, Mayfield won’t drop the ball against New Orleans. He passed for nearly 250 yards and found the end zone three times in TB’s 26-9 victory over the Saints earlier this season, helping the Buccaneers take advantage of three NOLA turnovers.
The Saints managed an unimpressive 197 yards against Tampa on October 1, as Derek Carr managed just 3.0 yards per passing attempt with an interception and no scores. In that game, he targeted Alvin Kamara 13 times as he struggled to hit receivers downfield. I don’t expect a much better showing by Carr on Sunday, as he’s unlikely to benefit from a complementary run game (3.6 YPC average) and is facing a Bucs team that bends but doesn’t break in the red zone.
