Just in: Eagles faced 3rd and 20 early in the fourth quarter against the…

The Philadelphia Eagles faced 3rd and 20 early in the fourth quarter against the New York Giants on Christmas Day, and the fans at Lincoln Financial Field were more than restless.

 

They were on the verge of anger.

Despite the Eagles holding a 20-3 lead at the halftime break, the crowd had watched New York climb back into the game. A stunning Pick-Six from Adoree’ Jackson, and the two-point conversion, had made it a 20-18 game early in the fourth quarter, and the Eagles were on the verge of going three-and-out on their ensuing possession, and the crowd felt it.

That’s when quarterback Jalen Hurts stepped up — literally and figuratively — and delivered the type of momentum-shifting moment you hope to see from one of the game’s highest-paid QBs:

The degree of difficulty on this connection is almost off the charts. An interior stunt from the Giants forces Hurts off his spot early in the play, but the quarterback manages to step up and climb the pocket, creating a little time for the vertical routes to develop downfield. With the Giants in zone coverage, A.J. Brown finds space along the right sideline, but Hurts has to navigate the threat of Isaiah Simmons lurking in the curl/flat zone between Hurts and his target.

The QB puts just enough air on the throw to get it over the outstretched hands of Simmons, and into Brown’s capable hands for the first down.

The completion bought the Eagles a fresh set of downs, and calmed the uneasy faithful in the stands. When Kenneth Gainwell ripped off this 22-yard run on the very next play, much to the joy of those Eagles fans clamoring for more in the running game in recent weeks, it seemed as if order was on its way to being restored:

Sure enough, the Eagles would finish the drive with a D’Andre Swift touchdown run from five yards out, pushing Philadelphia’s lead back to nine. They would extend that lead by three on their next possession, thanks to a Jake Elliott field goal. With a 30-18 lead, Philadelphia fans started to relax.

But that’s when the Giants stuck once more. Tyrod Taylor, in the game having replaced a struggling Tommy DeVito, connected with Darius Slayton on a shocking 76-yard touchdown pass, the Giants’ longest play of the season. Suddenly the Giants were right back in the game.

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While the Eagles held on, improving their playoff standing with the 33-25 victory over the Giants, the mood was anything but bright on the sideline during the game, and in the locker room after. Head coach Nick Sirianni was visibly frustrated prowling the sideline during the contest, and various players expressed their own frustration in the locker room after the win. Martin Frank, who covers the Eagles for Delaware Online, asked why the team was so “miserable” in his post-game column, outlining how Brown kept his comments to a minimum in the locker room.

“I got nothing nice to say,” Brown said. “I was taught if you don’t have anything nice to say, don’t say anything. If I have to take a fine, I’ll take it.”

Brown was not alone. DeVonta Smith, who caught a touchdown pass in the win — more on that play in a moment — outlined his own frustration with the Eagles’ play. “I’m not satisfied. Yeah, we got 11 wins. I’m not happy,” said Smith. “It needs to be better. What I want to do, what everybody else in here wants to do, what we want to be, we’re nowhere near that, so I’m not happy.”

Sirianni addressed his sideline … let’s say “discussion” … with Philadelphia defensive line coach Jeremiah Washburn near the end of the game:

“I get animated a lot. There are things that when mistakes are happening, or trying to get the communication going, just a little bit of that. That happens throughout a game. It’s going to be between players and players, coaches and players, coaches and coaches.

“But when you have the relationships that we have and the connections that we have, we’re able to move on quickly. The guys know all what we’re trying to do and coaches know all we’re trying to do is get everybody to play their best.

“Sometimes that’s with a smack on the butt, and sometimes that’s with a yell.”

You can see that moment here:

What might be underlying the frustration? Certainly the Eagles’ recent results could be a big reason why. A few weeks ago the Eagles were 10-1, and on the cusp of clinching the NFC East as well as closing in on the top-overall seed in the conference. However, three-straight losses, coupled with this underwhelming victory over the Giants, have seen the frustration mount.

Their internal angst can also be boiled down to a single number.

26.

That represents the Eagles’ point differential this season, a far cry from a year ago. A year ago the Eagles had a point differential of 133, which trailed only the San Francisco 49ers and the Buffalo Bills in that category, good for third in the league. Currently, the Eagles sit tenth in the NFL in that stat, behind NFC rivals such as the 49ers and the Dallas Cowboys.

They also trail the Detroit Lions — a team they might see in the postseason — and the New Orleans Saints, a team that might not even make the playoffs.

Things have just been tougher for the Eagles this year, and the massive margin for error they seemed to enjoy a year ago looks all but evaporated.

Something that also seems to be missing? An ability to attack the middle of the field consistently in the passing game. Last season, Hurts was one of the more effective passers targeting that area, as shown by this chart using Pro Football Focus data:

Now, a look at 2023:

My dear friend JP Acosta dove into this in his own analysis of what ails the Eagles a few weeks ago, noting that a season ago Hurts was “ … 176/220 on passes between the numbers, and much more efficient across the board.”

Now this year, ahead of their game against the Giants, Hurts was “… 130/165, a paltry number compared to where Hurts was last year.”

That game did not bolster his numbers. For comparison, look at Hurts’ spray chart from Christmas Day against the Giants:

The vast majority of his throws came towards the sidelines. Only one throw — the aforementioned touchdown to Smith — came between the hashmarks:

The other throw, which came along the right hashmark, was this completion to Brown off of play-action:

Other than that, everything else went towards the outside, or deeper down the field. It leads some, like JP, to describe the Eagles’ offense as a James Harden-esque system where everything is either a layup, or a deep three. The Eagles are either relying on deeper throws downfield which have a smaller chance of being completed, or throws to the outside and/or screens towards the boundary, which require effective blocking and/or players making defenders miss in space.

Again, it gets back to the margin for error. Right now, that seems to be minimal for the Eagles.

As for a potential fix, Eagles fans have been clamoring for more in the running game in recent weeks, and there is evidence to support that proposition. Take a look at this from RBSDM.com, which outlined EPA per dropback, as well as EPA per rushing attempt:

The Eagles have one of the best rushing attacks in the league, in terms of EPA/Rush. They also have the fourth-best “success rate” on rushing plays, behind only the Ravens, the Bills, and the 49ers.

They have the tenth-best success rate on passing plays.

We have seen the Eagles do this before. During the 2021 season, Hurts’ first year as the full-time starter, Philadelphia leaned into the running game down the stretch, and it translated into a surprising run to the playoffs.

Do we see that down the stretch and into the postseason again?

We might. But it seems apparent that right now the Eagles are still looking for answers as January approaches. Maybe they can figure those answers out in time for another deep run.

Or maybe the simmering frustration in Philadelphia boils over.