Surprising news: The Kansas City Royals trade their most talented player to another weak baseball team.
Remarkably, the Kansas City Royals move their best player to a different underperforming squad.
People did not necessarily expect the low-revenue, 106-loss Kansas City Royals to sign six free agents for a total of $105 million. But sources informed of the club’s thinking say that a number of recent and unexpected events are the cause of the team’s relative spending binge.
The ongoing decline of a division the Royals believe is winnable. John Sherman, the owner, once made the unusual decision to sign another free agent rather than deal a gifted young player. And indeed, a selection lottery penalized the Royals in their first two years of operation by giving them lower spots than they would have under the previous system, which was based only on won-loss records.
After finishing with the fifth-worst record in the league, the Royals were selected ninth in the draft. They had the second-worst record in ’23 and placed sixth overall. Lower positions translate into lower first-round pick signing bonuses and smaller total draft bonus pools for teams.
Officials from the Royals, frustrated as they are with the lottery, project that the two-year savings in first-round signing bonuses will be in the neighborhood of $5 million. The Players Association promoted the lottery as an anti-tanking provision in the most recent collective bargaining agreement, and while the exact number may wind up lower, the key is that it is working. A bad record does not now ensure a high choice.
As such, the Royals are essentially being forced into free agency. One of the worse farming systems in the game is theirs. They have no chance of missing out on one of the first six lottery picks. They are therefore reinvesting their first-round savings from the last two years into the major-league team rather than pocketing them.
Given the status of the American League Central, their timing makes even more sense. Like the Royals, the Detroit Tigers are attempting to resurrect and exhibit a higher spending capacity. But the Chicago White Sox are considering trade offers for Dylan Cease, their greatest pitcher, after suffering 101 losses. Meanwhile, because their regional sports networks are uncertain, the Twins and Guardians are being frugal with their money.
The Royals had to decide between pursuing another starting pitcher and signing free-agent outfielder Hunter Renfroe, who on Friday agreed to a two-year, $13 million contract. First baseman/DH Vinnie Pasquantino could be traded to the Marlins for left-hander Jesús Luzardo; sources claim this was discussed during the winter meetings. Or they might sign right-hander Michael Wacha, a somewhat sought-after second-tier free agent.
Luzardo was fascinating and would be under club ownership for three more seasons. But Pasquantino is still quite promising and is under club control for five more seasons. He missed all of the previous season due to a damaged labrum in his right shoulder that needed surgery. Dealing Pasquantino for Luzardo would have filled one hole and opened another for a club that finished the previous season ranked 23rd in runs scored.
Sherman was consulted by the front office. The owner decided to keep moving ahead. And the Royals and Wacha came to an agreement on a two-year, $32 million contract on Friday. Wacha has a one-season opt-out. Right-hander Seth Lugo, who had agreed to a three-year, $45 million deal, can opt out following his second.
Chris Stratton (two years, $8 million) and Will Smith (one year, $5 million) are the free-agent additions to the pen. Smith, who initially committed to the Royals, was instrumental in convincing Stratton, his Rangers teammate from the previous season, to join him. Presumably, Wacha and Lugo, Padres colleagues the previous season, also had conversations.
Club executives conveyed to the six players the Royals signed that a division championship was within their grasp. Postseason experience is brought by all six, including infielder Garrett Hampson, who committed to a one-year, $2 million contract. Their role is that of stabilizers, assisting younger Royals players in adjusting to big-league life.
By no means is the group flawless. Projected to be the closer right now, Smith, 34, isn’t the same force he was a few years ago. Probably, the Royals could use another late-inning type to split up the closing workload. While a left-handed hitting infielder would complete the position-player roster, that is not as important. Younger hitters like Nick Pratto, Kyle Isbel, MJ Melendez, and Pasquantino must advance, or the Royals’ investment may be in vain.
Beyond Bobby Witt Jr., the lineup will be deeper, with Renfroe, Pasquantino, and Sal Perez—who was the subject of trade talks at the most recent deadline—hitting somewhere in the middle of the order. Players like Melendez and Nelson Velázquez—another discovery made at the deadline last year—may wind up at the bottom. At least the Royals have runners in Witt, Isbel, Maikel Garcia, Michael Massey, and Drew Waters, even if they might not mash. Outs Above Average for the defense was fourth in the majors the previous season.
Fangraphs’ computation of the team’s current $111.7 million salary would be the Royals’ highest on Opening Day since 2018. The investments can backfire. Not one of the free agents is a super star. The Royals are making the effort, though. As they have discovered, avoiding the lottery is a commendable objective.
