Sometimes, the systems tasked with projecting college stars in the NFL spit out surprising results.
Other times, it spits out chalk. That’s the case with the edge rusher class for the 2024 NFL draft. The consensus top prospects are also projected to be the best at the position.
My SackSEER projection system, which predicts how many sacks a player will have in their first five NFL seasons, ranks Dallas Turner, Jared Verse and Laiatu Latu as the top three prospects this year — the same order as Scouts Inc.’s draft rankings. The rest of the ranking, however, shows there are some big differences between SackSEER and the scouting consensus.
What follows is a ranking of the top edge rusher prospects, according to projected NFL success, plus similar comps to prospects from past drafts and a sleeper to watch:
Turner comes out as the top prospect in the Explosion Index that combines various combine drills. He led all edge rushers in the 40-yard dash at 4.46 seconds, had the highest vertical jump at 40.5 inches and was close to the top in the broad jump at 10-foot-7. Turner also tops all other prospects in the SRAM metric, as he had 10 sacks as a junior and, more impressively, 8.5 sacks as a freshman in 2021.
What’s holding Turner’s projection down is his low total of passes defensed. Passes defensed is a good indicator of pass-rush ability, as it shows a player’s skill to get up and slap down the ball when close to the quarterback. Turner only had one in three seasons.
When looking for similar historical prospects, I couldn’t find any similar to Turner in weight, sack stats and combine drill performance but also very low in passes defensed. (Miller had five in his junior year, for example, plus an interception as a senior.)
