Heartbreak: Michigan State basketball greatest player of all time has finally announce his leaving due comeback of…
Pro leagues in the US and across the world are taking a midseason break, while college basketball is gearing up for its final stretch.
Here is a glance at the teams and performances of former Michigan State players as the basketball season is halfway through:
There were many highs and lows for Michigan State Spartan supporters during the 2020–2021 basketball season. It was obviously a high point to defeat Duke in Cameron Indoor Arena and to win three of the top 10 teams in two weeks, including rival Michigan. Losing heartbreaking games in the First Four to UCLA and Purdue were undoubtedly low points.
Like most things sports-related, I’m not sure if it’s possible to truly quantify the exhilaration and suffering of these highs and lows. The less likely events, which make them more exciting—or painful—pique my curiosity in particular. I’m interested in putting a number on huge victories and heartbreaking losses.
A prime example is the home defeat to Purdue Boilermaker right before Michigan State was forced to close because to the COVID-19 halt.
.. With less than 20 seconds remaining and Aaron Henry going to the free-throw line, MSU had a three-point lead despite the Boilermakers’ revival. The Spartans had led by 17 points early in the second half.
The Spartans appeared to have the game won, but Trevion Williams’ basket, a turnover, a foul, a missed free throw, and a box out allowed Purdue to pull off an incredible comeback victory. It was a string of unlucky, unlikely incidents. However, how unlikely was it?
The power of analytics allows us to put a number on our suffering. As the game goes on, ESPN’s Gamecast provides real-time projections of each team’s chances of winning. A comparable set of data is offered by Kenpom.com once
The game is finished.
To the best of my knowledge, neither website provides a thorough explanation of the methodology used to arrive at these figures. However, I assume that it involves a combination of each team’s offensive and defensive efficiency, the anticipated number of possessions left, and historical data derived from games with comparable margins and remaining time.
With 19 seconds left in the Purdue game, ESPN’s computation gave MSU a about 87 percent probability to win. Kempon thought the Spartans had a better chance. According to Kempon’s estimate, MSU had a greater than 96 percent chance of winning at that point, ranking it in the top 100 biggest upsets/comebacks of the 2020–2021 season.
Although I am unable to determine which approach—EPSN or Kenpom—is superior, I am aware that Kempon contains further information. Win probability information is available on the Kempon website dating back to 2010. With the use of this information, we can determine which recent Spartan basketball comebacks and heartbreaks are among the greatest in terms of probability.
