Analysis: Why the Mariners might need to wait to make more moves.
Analysis: A Total Set Back For Mariners As They Lost One Of…..
ASHVILLE, Tenn. — As groups of people began dismantling the array of temporary television studios late Wednesday evening, with only the monstrosity belonging to MLB Network remaining, the annual Major League Baseball winter meetings, which never really reached full transaction speed or hot stove frenzy, wound down at the Gaylord Opryland Resort.
Shohei Ohtani was still weighing massive contract offers from organizations, all of whom were terrified to mention their interest in the two-way superstar.
There is some hope and reporting that Ohtani could make his decision in the next few days, ending the growing fatigue from the speculation, secrecy and supposition surrounding his free agency.
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Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the most talented pitcher to ever come from Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, has opted to meet with teams in Los Angeles next week before making a decision.
The long-expected trade that sends Padres outfielder Juan Soto to the Yankees became official Wednesday night. Reports of trade at least being in place began to permeate early Wednesday evening.
Of the handful of major transactions made during the meetings, the five-player trade between the Mariners and Braves that started the meetings Sunday night, which was essentially a Seattle salary dump, and the Red Sox sending disgruntled outfielder Alex Verdugo to their division rivals in New York for three minor-league prospects were the two most notable.
The four-day affair didn’t quite live up to the hot stove hype and hoopla often associated with the winter meetings and pushed by MLB.
A major reason for the inactivity is that Ohtani, Yamamoto and the Padres’ inevitable trade of Soto were delaying the rest of the free-agent and trade markets. Players and their representatives wanting to maximize contract opportunities and teams searching for specific needs via free agency or trade realize that waiting for those mega deals to happen is prudent even if not desired.
For the Mariners, who once thought they’d be shopping in those megadeals, they leave the meetings with more money to use on players than they had coming into it. The trade that sent outfielder Jarred Kelenic, first baseman Evan White and left-handed pitcher Marco Gonzales to the Braves for right-handed pitchers Jackson Kowar and Cole Phillips was made to provide flexibility in a payroll budget that was cut a few weeks into offseason due to revenue uncertainty with ROOT Sports NW.
While nobody within the Mariners front office — including Jerry Dipoto, the president of baseball operations — will provide an exact dollar figure on the team’s payroll budget, a cautious estimate could put the Mariners just over the estimated $140 million spent on payroll last season. And likely no more than $150 million.
The trade with the Braves and an earlier trade that sent third baseman Eugenio Suarez to the Arizona Diamondbacks removed just over $20 million in projected salary for 2024. Per FanGraphs, the Mariners’ projected payroll for 2024 is $117 million. Logically, the Mariners won’t max out their payroll budget before the season starts. So, they probably have just over $25 million to spend on payroll for this season.
But using that money in either free agency or in salaries acquired in trades to add multiple position players to fill out their lineup won’t necessarily be on the Mariners’ timetable.
For the team and a beleaguered fan base, angry over the revelation of payroll limitations, there will need to be a level of patience for those needed additions.
Ah, patience, it’s a word that has so many connotations, many negative or mocking, when used in Mariners world.
“There’s a lot of time that exists between the meetings and opening day,” Dipoto said. “I’ve done this for a long time; something always works out. Whether it’s being patient in the free-agent market, whether it’s being persistent in trade discussions, whether it’s doing a little bit more than maybe you wanted to do when it gets late in the offseason, all of those things are in play.”
Seattle has shown interest in Rays outfielder Randy Arozarena and infielder Isaac Paredes. But Tampa is also in the process of trying to trade right-handed pitcher Tyler Glasnow, who is owed $25 million next season, Logically, a trade return for Glasnow might be larger from a team that missed out on Yamamoto.
Even though the drop-off from Ohtani to the next tier of free-agent hitters like Cody Bellinger, Rhys Hoskins, J.D. Martinez, Jorge Soler and Matt Chapman is wide, those players are still going to wait to see where Ohtani and Soto end up, hoping the runners-up in that chase will pivot to them. Even the next tier of hitters like Lourdes Gurriel Jr., a fit for the Mariners’ needs, Teoscar Hernandez and Jeimer Candelario, also a fit, are likely to wait to see how the market adjusts.
“You don’t want to rush anything, because if you’re irrational or emotional in your decision making, especially right now, you’re gonna regret it in the long run,” Dipoto said. “Look more broadly, we have two, maybe three positions to fill, and there’s not a race to do it tomorrow. If a player showed up on our roster tomorrow who makes us better, I’m thrilled. If that happens in January, I’m thrilled. My guess is somewhere between now and then, one or two of them is probably going to fill in and there might be another that takes a little while longer.”
Ryan Divish: rdivish@seattletimes.com; on Twitter: @RyanDivish. Ryan Divish covers the Mariners in Seattle and on the road. Look for his ‘Extra Innings’ podcast and mailbags during the season.
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