ESPN: Boston celtics head coach has been suspended.
The Boston Celtics will play host to the Denver Nuggets on Friday night at TD Garden. Tip-off between the NBA Finals hopefuls is at 7:30 p.m. ET.
Denver (28-14 SU, 18-24 ATS, and 17-24-1 O/U) is 11-10 SU and 7-14 ATS on the road this season. The Nuggets are 6-4 SU and 4-6 ATS in their last ten games overall.
Boston (32-9 SU, 21-18-2 ATS, and 21-19-1 O/U) is 20-0 SU and 13-7 ATS at home. The Celtics are 7-3 SU and 6-4 ATS in their last ten games overall.
The Celtics are 5.5-point spread favorites and the game total is 234 points.
Injury Report
Nuggets: PF Aaron Gordon (14.1 PPG and 6.6 RPG) is probable with a heel injury.
Celtics: PF Kristaps Porzingis (19.1 PPG, 6.8 RPG, and 1.8 BPG) and PG Derrick White (15.9 PPG and 4.9 APG) are probable with knee and ankle injuries.
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Will Denver’s road woes continue?
Denver averages 116.3 points (13th) on 49.9 percent shooting (4th), including 37.9 percent from long range (9th). It converts 75.2 percent of its free-throw attempts (28th) and averages 43.8 rebounds (13th), 29.5 assists (3rd), and 12.6 turnovers (5th) per game.
The Nuggets give up 111.4 points per game (7th), and their opponents shoot 46.7 percent (13th), including 36.5 percent from beyond the arc (15th), with 41.9 rebounds per game (7th). Denver averages 5.3 blocks (16th), 7.1 steals (21st), and 19.0 fouls (8th).
The Nuggets rank 5th in offensive rating, 13th in defensive rating, and 28th in pace (schedule-adjusted), per Dunks and Threes.
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Will Boston stay undefeated at home?
Boston scores 120.9 points per game (5th) and shoots 47.8 percent (12th), including 38.1 percent from downtown (6th). It knocks down 80.6 percent of its foul shots (8th) and averages 47.5 rebounds (1st), 25.5 assists (21st), and 13.0 turnovers (8th) per game.
The Celtics surrender 110.9 points per game (5th), and their opponents shoot 45.0 percent (3rd), including 35.4 percent from beyond the arc (8th), with 43.8 rebounds per game (16th). They average 6.4 blocks (1st), 6.5 steals (29th), and 17.4 fouls (2nd).
Boston ranks 1st in offensive rating, 2nd in defensive rating, and 17th in pace (schedule-adjusted), per Dunks and Threes.
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Rating:
Denver has played a tough stretch of games that included a road game at Utah (L), home games against New Orleans (W) and Indiana (W), and a road game at Philadelphia (L). Now, it must travel to Boston to play a C’s team that still hasn’t lost at home this season.
The Nuggets have not played as well away from Ball Arena this season (7-14 ATS), failing to cover in three of their four games as road underdogs. One reason for their below-average play away has been their three-point shooting, which drops three percentage points on the road. Given the state of today’s NBA, it’s tough to cover when you’re off the mark from beyond the arc.
The Celtics are primed to win this game, riding their hot offensive attack to the finish line. The most efficient offense in the league uses the three-ball like a chainsaw in a horror movie, cutting down its opponents one by one. The C’s rank first in three-pointers attempted and sixth in shooting percentage, per Dunks and Threes, an area of the court the Nuggets do not defend well enough (15th in opponent 3PT%). The visitors are stout at the rim (6th in rim defense), but the Celtics rank 29th in rim shot attempts.
With Porzingis and White expected to suit up for the Celtics and Gordon likely to play for the Nuggets, basketball fans should expect a competitive game on Friday night in Boston. The trends and analytics point to a Celtics win and cover, which is how I’ll be wagering on this potential NBA Finals matchup.
